Long before modern prediction markets, papal elections fueled a vibrant, informal betting scene. From the Renaissance onwards, gamblers in Italy and beyond wagered on everything from the next pope's nationality and name to the duration of the conclave. These wagers weren't just idle speculation; they reflected aggregated information and collective wisdom about the contenders, the political climate, and the power dynamics within the Catholic Church. This early form of prediction market offered valuable insights, albeit sometimes manipulated by those with vested interests. The practice eventually waned due to concerns about corruption and the Church's disapproval, but it serves as a fascinating precursor to today's formalized prediction platforms.
The blog post details the author's experience market making on Kalshi, a prediction market platform. They outline their automated strategy, which involves setting bid and ask prices around a predicted probability, adjusting spreads based on liquidity and event volatility. The author focuses on "Will the Fed cut interest rates before 2024?", highlighting the challenges of predicting this complex event and managing risk. Despite facing difficulties like thin markets and the need for continuous model refinement, they achieved a small profit, demonstrating the potential, albeit challenging, nature of algorithmic market making on these platforms. The post emphasizes the importance of careful risk management, constant monitoring, and adapting to market conditions.
HN commenters discuss the intricacies and challenges of market making on Kalshi, particularly regarding the platform's fee structure. Some highlight the difficulty of profiting given the 0.5% fee per trade and the need for substantial volume to overcome it. Others point out that Kalshi contracts are generally illiquid, making sustained profitability challenging even without fees. The discussion touches on the complexities of predicting probabilities and the potential for exploitation by insiders with privileged information. Some users express skepticism about the viability of retail market making on Kalshi, while others suggest potential strategies involving statistical arbitrage or focusing on less efficient, smaller markets. The conversation also briefly explores the regulatory landscape and Kalshi's unique position as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43290892
HN commenters discuss the history and mechanics of papal betting markets, noting their surprising longevity (dating back to at least the 1500s) and their function as early prediction markets. Some question the article's claim these were the original prediction markets, pointing to earlier examples like commodity futures. Others elaborate on the intricacies of these papal elections, including the role of cardinals and the influence of powerful families like the Medici. The discussion also touches on modern prediction markets like PredictIt and Metaculus, comparing their accuracy and the factors that influence their outcomes. Several commenters delve into the incentives and information asymmetry inherent in such markets, including the potential for manipulation and insider trading.
The Hacker News post "Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market" sparked a moderately active discussion with a variety of comments focusing on historical context, the nature of prediction markets, and tangents inspired by the original article.
Several commenters delved deeper into the history of papal betting, offering additional context. One user highlighted the long history of betting on papal elections, noting its presence throughout the Renaissance and even earlier. They pointed out that these wagers weren't simply informal gambles but were often intertwined with complex financial instruments and used by powerful families like the Medici to hedge political risks. Another commenter expanded on the methods used for these early prediction markets, mentioning the use of informal networks and messengers to disseminate information and facilitate bets across geographical distances. This contributor also touched upon the challenges of enforcing these wagers given the lack of formal regulatory structures.
The discussion also explored the broader definition of prediction markets. One user questioned whether papal betting truly constituted a prediction market in the modern sense, arguing that true prediction markets require a mechanism for prices to fluctuate based on collective wisdom. They suggested that papal betting was more akin to simple gambling due to the lack of a dynamic pricing mechanism. This sparked a small debate, with another commenter countering that the information exchange and speculation surrounding papal elections did influence the odds offered by bookmakers, creating a rudimentary form of price discovery.
Some comments drifted tangentially from the core topic, drawing connections to other historical practices. One user mentioned the practice of betting on ship arrivals in 17th-century Amsterdam, suggesting it as another early form of prediction market. Another commenter noted the prevalence of political betting throughout history, implying that the desire to wager on uncertain future outcomes is a deeply ingrained human behavior. A different comment explored the role of information asymmetry in these early prediction markets, highlighting how access to inside information could significantly impact the outcome of these wagers.
Finally, some comments focused on more practical aspects of the original article. One user praised the article's writing style and the engaging way it presented historical information. Another commenter requested clarification on a specific historical detail mentioned in the piece.
While not a highly active discussion, the comments on the Hacker News post offered valuable historical context, examined the nature of prediction markets, and explored related historical examples. They provided a richer understanding of the topic beyond the scope of the original article.