A newly discovered, rapidly growing magma chamber beneath Kolumbo, a submarine volcano near Santorini, Greece, raises concerns about a potential future eruption. Researchers using a novel imaging technique detected a melt reservoir accumulating at a rate of 4 million cubic meters per year, suggesting a significant eruption could occur within the next 150 years, though the exact timing is unpredictable. This discovery underscores the need for real-time monitoring of submarine volcanoes, as current methods often fail to detect magma build-up until shortly before an eruption.
A recently published study in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, has revealed the unexpected discovery of a sizable magma chamber forming beneath the Kolumbo submarine volcano, situated near Santorini in the Aegean Sea. This finding raises concerns regarding a potential future eruption, although the precise timeframe remains uncertain.
Kolumbo, while currently dormant, is recognized as the most active submarine volcano in the Mediterranean region. Its last eruption, a devastating event in 1650, resulted in a tsunami and the release of toxic gases, claiming the lives of seventy individuals. This new research utilizes a novel imaging technique, akin to a medical ultrasound, known as full-waveform inversion. This technique allowed scientists to analyze seismic wave propagation through the Earth’s crust beneath the volcano, effectively mapping variations in rock properties. Specifically, the method identified a prominent velocity anomaly, a region where seismic waves travel significantly slower than expected, indicative of the presence of a molten rock reservoir.
This previously undetected magma chamber is estimated to have grown to a volume of 1.4 cubic kilometers since the 1650 eruption. The accumulating magma is calculated to be approaching the eruptive volume threshold observed in previous eruptions, leading researchers to suggest a potential eruption within the next 150 years. The study emphasizes that the volcano’s magma supply rate is consistent with estimates from previous studies, although the precise timing of a future eruption remains difficult to predict with certainty.
The researchers underscore the importance of continuous monitoring of Kolumbo, advocating for the installation of a permanent seafloor observatory in the vicinity. Such an observatory would facilitate real-time monitoring of seismic activity, gas emissions, and seafloor deformation, providing crucial early warning signs of an impending eruption and contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of volcanic processes within this tectonically active region. This proactive approach to monitoring could prove invaluable in mitigating the risks posed by a potential eruption of Kolumbo, given its proximity to populated areas and the historical precedent of its destructive capacity. The study highlights the potential benefits of applying full-waveform inversion techniques to other active volcanoes worldwide, enabling the detection of previously hidden magma chambers and aiding in the assessment of volcanic hazards globally.
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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43019975
HN commenters discussed the potential implications of a growing magma chamber under the Kolumbo volcano near Santorini. Some expressed concern about the possibility of a large, tsunami-generating eruption, recalling the devastating Minoan eruption of Thera. Others highlighted the limitations of the study, noting the difficulty in predicting volcanic eruptions and the uncertainty surrounding the timeframe and magnitude of any potential event. A few commenters focused on the scientific aspects, discussing the methods used to detect the magma chamber and the significance of the findings for understanding volcanic processes. One compelling comment mentioned the relative silence of the volcano before the 1650 eruption, contrasting it with the current detectable activity and emphasizing the importance of continued monitoring. Another highlighted the potential impact of a large eruption on global climate, drawing parallels to the 1815 Tambora eruption and the subsequent "year without a summer".
The Hacker News post titled "Surprise Magma Chamber Growing Under Mediterranean Volcano" has generated several comments discussing the linked article about the Kolumbo submarine volcano near Santorini.
Several commenters focused on the potential danger posed by Kolumbo. One commenter highlighted the history of Santorini/Thera's eruption and its devastating impact on the Minoan civilization, expressing concern that a similar event could occur again. This commenter also pointed out the significant tsunami risk associated with submarine volcanoes, especially given Kolumbo's proximity to populated areas. Another commenter mentioned the potential for a "Santorini-like" eruption, acknowledging the uncertainty but emphasizing the importance of monitoring.
Building on the concern for the impact of a potential eruption, one commenter queried about the possibility of mitigating the risk through intervention, specifically asking if there was any way to depressurize the magma chamber. Another commenter responded, explaining the immense scale of the forces involved and the impracticality, bordering on impossibility, of such an intervention with current technology. They compared the energy involved to that of a nuclear bomb, highlighting the futility of trying to control such a powerful natural process.
Another thread of discussion arose around the detection methods used to identify the growing magma chamber. One commenter questioned how scientists could differentiate between a solidified magma chamber cooling and shrinking versus a molten chamber growing. Another user responded by explaining that the study likely utilized seismic wave analysis to identify the presence and characteristics of the magma chamber, as changes in wave velocity can reveal information about the material's state (solid versus liquid).
The location of the volcano also sparked discussion. One commenter expressed surprise at the existence of a volcano so close to Santorini, indicating a lack of awareness about Kolumbo. Another user offered additional context by mentioning a National Geographic documentary that highlighted the volcano and its potential threat. This comment also underscored the volcano's active status and the ongoing monitoring efforts.
Finally, some comments focused on the scientific aspects of the discovery. One user emphasized the value of the research in enhancing our understanding of volcanic processes, particularly in submarine environments. Another commenter speculated on the potential link between the magma chamber's growth and the increased seismic activity observed in the region.
Overall, the comments reflect a mix of concern about the potential dangers posed by Kolumbo, curiosity about the scientific findings, and a desire to understand the implications of this discovery.