The frequently misattributed quote, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers," is almost certainly not something Thomas Watson (Sr. or Jr.) of IBM ever said. While the exact origin remains elusive, the phrase likely emerged in the early days of computing as a reflection of the then-prevailing belief that computers were massive, expensive machines suitable only for government or large corporations. The story's persistence stems from its encapsulating the difficulty of predicting technological advancements and the dramatic evolution of computers from room-sized behemoths to ubiquitous personal devices. Various possible sources and similar quotes exist, but none definitively link the famous phrase to IBM or Watson.
This blog post delves into the pervasive yet apocryphal anecdote attributing the statement "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" to Thomas J. Watson, the former president of International Business Machines (IBM). The article meticulously dissects the origins and evolution of this widely circulated quotation, tracing its trajectory through various publications and examining the evidence, or lack thereof, supporting its veracity. The author embarks on a detailed historical investigation, exploring numerous potential sources and contexts in which such a remark might have been uttered, including a shareholder meeting in 1943 and a meeting concerning the UNIVAC computer. Despite the persistent association of this prediction with Watson and IBM, the post underscores the absence of any credible, contemporary documentation confirming that he ever made such a statement. It highlights the difficulties encountered by researchers in locating any primary source material, such as meeting minutes, transcripts, or contemporaneous publications, that would definitively link Watson to this claim. Furthermore, the article explores the evolution of the quote itself, noting variations in phrasing and the gradual shift in the purported timeframe of the utterance. The author posits that the adage, likely originating much later than often assumed, reflects a broader societal skepticism towards the early development and potential applications of computing technology, rather than a specific, documented prediction by Watson. The post concludes by categorizing the "five computers" quote as an enduring urban legend, emphasizing the importance of scrutinizing the historical accuracy of commonly repeated anecdotes, especially within the rapidly evolving realm of technology history. It serves as a cautionary tale against the perpetuation of misinformation and the acceptance of historical narratives without rigorous examination of supporting evidence.
Summary of Comments ( 58 )
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42791906
Hacker News commenters discuss the often-misattributed quote about the limited market for computers. Several point out that the quote's origins are murky, with some suggesting it's a distortion of Howard Aiken's or Thomas Watson Sr.'s sentiments, while others link it to anecdotally attributed quotes in the early days of mainframe computing. Some highlight the difficulty of predicting technological adoption and the shifting definition of "computer" over time. One commenter mentions a similar misattribution regarding the market for automobiles, illustrating a broader pattern of underestimating transformative technologies. The overall sentiment reflects a shared understanding that such quotes, while entertaining, are often historically inaccurate and ultimately demonstrate the fallibility of early technological forecasting.
The Hacker News post titled "Urban legend: I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" has generated a lively discussion with numerous comments. Several commenters delve into the nuances of the often-misattributed quote about the limited market for computers.
A recurring theme is the clarification that Watson's supposed prediction wasn't about personal computers, but rather large, expensive mainframe systems like the IBM 701, which occupied entire rooms and cost millions of dollars. Commenters point out the context of the time, where computers were primarily seen as tools for government, scientific research, and large corporations, not for individual use. This distinction is crucial, as it reframes Watson's assessment not as a lack of foresight, but as a reasonable prediction based on the then-current state of technology and its associated costs.
Several commenters provide further context by discussing the evolution of computing. They trace the progression from room-sized mainframes to minicomputers, and finally to the personal computers we know today. This historical perspective highlights how advancements in technology, particularly the invention of the microchip, dramatically reduced the size and cost of computers, opening up the market far beyond what was imaginable in Watson's time.
Some commenters also discuss the difficulty of predicting technological advancements and market shifts. They acknowledge that even visionaries can struggle to foresee the long-term implications of new technologies. The rapid and often unpredictable pace of technological development is highlighted, with examples of other inaccurate predictions about the future of technology.
A few comments explore the specific uses of early computers, such as scientific calculations and military applications, further emphasizing the specialized and limited nature of the market at the time.
One compelling comment thread delves into the origins and variations of the quote attributed to Watson. Commenters debate the accuracy of the attribution and discuss other similar quotes from that era reflecting the perceived limited market for computers. This discussion underscores the challenges of verifying historical anecdotes and the importance of considering the context surrounding such quotes.
Finally, some commenters humorously reflect on the irony of the quote in light of the ubiquitous nature of computers today, with virtually everyone having access to multiple computing devices. This serves as a poignant reminder of how dramatically technology has transformed society in a relatively short period.