The website "WTF Happened In 1971?" presents a collection of graphs depicting various socio-economic indicators in the United States, primarily spanning from the post-World War II era to the present day. The overarching implication of the website is that a significant inflection point occurred around 1971, after which several key metrics seemingly diverged from their previously established trends. This divergence often manifests as a decoupling between productivity and compensation, a stagnation or decline in real wages, and a dramatic increase in metrics related to cost of living, such as housing prices and healthcare expenses.
The website does not explicitly propose a singular causative theory for this shift. Instead, it presents a compelling visual argument for the existence of a turning point in American economic history, inviting viewers to draw their own conclusions. The graphs showcase a variety of indicators, including, but not limited to:
Productivity and real hourly wages: These graphs illustrate a strong correlation between productivity and wages prior to 1971, with both rising in tandem. Post-1971, however, productivity continues to climb while real wages stagnate, creating a widening gap. This suggests that the benefits of increased productivity were no longer being equitably distributed to workers.
Housing prices and housing affordability: The website depicts a sharp escalation in housing costs relative to income after 1971. This is visualized through metrics like the house price-to-income ratio and the number of years of median income required to purchase a median-priced house. This indicates a growing difficulty for the average American to afford housing.
Healthcare costs: Similar to housing, the cost of healthcare exhibits a dramatic increase after 1971, becoming a progressively larger burden on household budgets.
Debt levels (both household and national): The website presents graphs showcasing a substantial rise in debt levels, particularly after 1971. This includes metrics like household debt as a percentage of disposable income and the national debt as a percentage of GDP, suggesting a growing reliance on borrowing to maintain living standards.
College costs and college tuition as a percentage of median income: The cost of higher education undergoes a significant increase post-1971, making college less accessible for many.
Income inequality: The website visually represents the growing disparity in income distribution, with the share of wealth held by the top 1% increasing significantly after 1971, further exacerbating the economic challenges faced by the majority of the population.
In essence, "WTF Happened In 1971?" visually argues that a fundamental change occurred in the American economy around that year, marked by decoupling of productivity and wages, exploding costs of essential goods and services like housing and healthcare, and a widening gap between the wealthy and the rest of the population. The website refrains from explicitly attributing this shift to any specific cause, leaving the interpretation and analysis to the observer.
Summary of Comments ( 66 )
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42711781
Hacker News users discuss potential causes for the economic shift highlighted in the linked article, "WTF Happened in 1971?". Several commenters point to the Nixon Shock, the end of the Bretton Woods system, and the decoupling of the US dollar from gold as the primary driver, leading to increased inflation and wage stagnation. Others suggest it's an oversimplification, citing factors like the oil crisis, increased competition from Japan and Germany, and the peak of US manufacturing dominance as contributing factors. Some argue against a singular cause, proposing a combination of these elements along with demographic shifts and the end of the post-WWII economic boom as a more holistic explanation. A few more skeptical commenters question the premise entirely, arguing the presented correlations don't equal causation and that the chosen metrics are cherry-picked. Finally, some discuss the complexities of measuring productivity and the role of technological advancements in influencing economic trends.
The Hacker News post titled "WTF Happened in 1971?" generated a significant amount of discussion, with many commenters offering various perspectives on the claims made in the linked article. While some expressed skepticism about the presented correlations, others offered supporting arguments, additional historical context, and alternative interpretations.
A recurring theme in the comments was the acknowledgment that 1971 was a pivotal year with numerous significant global events. The end of the Bretton Woods system, where currencies were pegged to gold, was frequently cited as a key factor contributing to the economic shifts highlighted in the article. Commenters debated the long-term consequences of this change, with some arguing it led to increased financial instability and inequality.
Several commenters pointed out potential flaws in the article's methodology, suggesting that simply correlating various metrics with the year 1971 doesn't necessarily imply causation. They argued that other factors, such as the oil crisis of the 1970s, increasing globalization, and technological advancements, could have contributed to the observed trends. Some suggested that focusing solely on 1971 oversimplifies a complex historical period and that a more nuanced analysis is required.
Some commenters offered alternative explanations for the trends shown in the article. One commenter proposed that the post-World War II economic boom, driven by reconstruction and pent-up demand, was naturally slowing down by the early 1970s. Another suggested that the rise of neoliberal economic policies, beginning in the 1970s and 80s, played a significant role in the growing income inequality.
Other commenters focused on the social and cultural changes occurring around 1971. They mentioned the rise of counterculture movements, the changing role of women in society, and the increasing awareness of environmental issues as potential factors influencing the trends discussed. Some argued that these societal shifts were intertwined with the economic changes, creating a complex and multifaceted picture of the era.
A few commenters delved deeper into specific data points presented in the article, challenging their accuracy or offering alternative interpretations. For example, the discussion around productivity and wages prompted debate about how these metrics are measured and whether they accurately reflect the lived experiences of workers.
While the article itself presents a particular narrative, the comments on Hacker News offer a broader range of perspectives and interpretations. They highlight the complexities of historical analysis and the importance of considering multiple factors when examining societal shifts. The discussion serves as a valuable reminder that correlation does not equal causation and encourages a critical approach to understanding historical trends.